I have been an active member in this forum for 8+ years and in that time, I have grown from strength to strength and I could thank numerous people for the same. I have written a lot but have never done so in a thread of my own. I have mostly written in the books thread and the bull therapy techno funda thread and numerous company threads. I stop myself from sharing a lot of random thoughts, ideas and opinions because they don’t fit in any of these threads. The idea for this thread is to do the same, without boundaries. I will do so very infrequently and not unless its worth writing about. I don’t know what shape it will take but the idea is to write about things beyond investing and about value in general, which can arise in a lot of other contexts.
To start with though, I would like to write a bit about the year that has passed. It has been an incredible year from an investing standpoint. I forced myself to try my hand at an approach (holding long-term) which I felt was very different from the one I was using last year. The year before ('22) was buying mid/large cap consumption names (VBL, ITC, IDFC First, Metro Brands etc.) where again I switched consciously to smaller names for '23. This year I tried my hand at a low churn approach with expectation of 20% returns. I am stumped and confused by how well it has worked out. Ceinsys, Wockhardt and Shaily have really done well (continue to hold) alongside Shilchar, Garware, Sharda Motors (sold these 3 only to regret the former 2). There were numerous others but compared to these, they didn’t move the needle much because of smaller allocations or because they performed relatively poorly.
As for good things from '23 which i carried forward - I continued to collaborate with numerous people, focused on position-sizing. But dropped the technicals in techno-funda and macro bits mostly (I still look at charts and follow macro for amusement but dont act). The last bit in last year’s post on long-term investing clearly played in my mind a lot and helped change my approach. Bulk of the alpha this year came from sitting through “Day 1 of the bear market” (election results, june 4th) and with ceinsys through MH results. This calmness and courage could have backfired but thankfully it did not. This is what I hope to carry through '25 with not much expectations and take whatever comes with equanimity - Wocky’s 5222 NDA, Shaily’s RoW launches in Semaglutide this year, Ceinsys execution of their 1200 Cr order book (+ 500 Cr L1) are what I am looking forward to.
Have also focused more on picking up additional skills (playing guitar) and health (running) alongside reading which I continue to do. It was a very good year in terms of number of books read but a very poor one in terms of summarazing/reviewing as I now have a pile of nearly 40 books which are read but not reviewed. This is something I hope to change.
Hopefully I will have things to share in this thread through '25 on everything under the sun. Happy new year!
173 Likes Midhun's Investment journey and Space to organize investment ideas sougataG 3I have been following your posts for a long time. I have learned much from your book reviews and stock posts. I am glad that you have started your thread. Thank you.
1 Like ashwin2 4New to valuepickr and investing, but picked up and gained a lot from you.
Picked up in books- Bottle of Lies, Ten Drugs. Ten drugs was an amazing read. I was basically looking for reading material where i could learn more about current pharma scenario so i could invest in cos launching future big drugs. Also picked up Attention Merchants, but haven’t read it yet. A lot of others you reviewed I had already read.
Picked up stocks- discovered Ceinsys tech from you : ) thank you for the in-depth analysis, helped me build conviction. also shaily but took a small position.
6 Likes ca.namish 5Have been following u from last 6 months… Have learnt lot from you. Your work on wockhardt, geopspatial (genesys & ceinsys), holmarc. All are exceptional. Genesys and ceinsys are having highest weightage in my portfolio.
Thanks for starting this thread.
I am glad that you have started this thread where you could share your free flowing thoughts on topics beyond specific stocks and book reviews. I, and I am very sure many many folks on this board look forward to your posts. And the reason behind that is both what you write (actual content) and how you think (and dig). Your detail oriented approach, clear thought process and ability to articulate your point of view is outstanding.
Selfishly I would be all ears to know more on your mental model towards various styles of investing, how not to become slave of investing styles and keep the concept and execution fluid, how one should go about setting up realistic financial goals, how to remain emotionally strong dealing with ups and downs of market and many more. And while I look forward to these, I also look forward to ask follow up questions and debate with you.
Your posts are treasure to this board, and I wish this treasure to become richer in the days to come.
Cheers,
Krishna
HNY Bharani Sir, Wishing you and other forum contributors a happy, healthy and prosperous 2025. Loved the post, i am sharing my experience and outcomes of 2024. Overall, it was a mixed year, made around 28% returns in primary markets( Reliance and Jio Fin primarily) and around 60%( secondary/unlisted - all notional since am holding them, primary contributors being NSE, Vikram Solar and OYO), currently stuck with Reliance and GMR airports at higher price points, plan to hold them for long but capital is stuck without seeing profits as of no
Interestingly, the curated primary portfolio i built and tracked( without investing) gave a return of 3X ( Wockhardt, Ratnaveer, Century, Ola, Paytm) and around 4.5x in unlisted space (MSEI, Waree, Vikram Solar- had a big block available but didn’t take it). So kinda frustrating since i had the money but lacked conviction ( some were borrowed conviction).
Whats your current buy list and price range? Similarly, your sell list and range?
1 Like Gautam_Chopra 8I will always be grateful to you for the Wockhardt thread, that thread is a bible for me. It has a good balance of Basic Pharma terms and in depth knowledge on the Wockhardt business too. That thread motivated me write one of my longest/well studied Orchid Pharma thread. It goes without saying that writing things makes one thesis much stronger and more than the thesis, the anti thesis also becomes stronger.
After writing Orchids thread and Reading ur Wock’s thread i feel much comfortable reading different pharma names. In the past this was not the case, coz i don’t hail from that background and had a bias of not reading pharma coz of this. Glad it has changed for the good.
Hope to read and collaborate more on platform for like minded folks like you.
18 Likes Senthil_Kumar2 9You made an very important point but it comes at the last. Additional skills like running, jogging or yoga is very important as sometimes we get carried away looking at the numbers game. Reading has always soothed me and gives perspective. Sometimes it gives idea of how to be calm, which is very important in this game.
2 Likes ishikaghose 10I, for one, look forward to your new thread. I have learned much from your posts and am sure 2025 will continue to be a learning process for me. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and approach to investing
phreakv6 11Thank you @sougataG @ashwin2 @ca.namish @kkrai @Pravin_Kumar @Gautam_Chopra @ishikaghose for the kind words. Will try to continue writing and contributing. Apologies if I don’t answer specific queries on other stocks - its not because I dont have time but I may not know much about stocks I dont own.
Some thoughts on markets and pf
Market seems inclined to go down. Not because it has to but because it wants to. There seem to be new reasons every week. Last Monday it was HMPV virus which caused similar cut and now it is the usual cocktail of USD/INR, FII selling, US10Y, Brent, DXY etc. The LA wildfires seems to be the new bearish mindvirus. Then there’s our budget and Trump taking over on the horizon. There is clearly a fatigue in several names across market cap and bearish breakdowns are all over the place. Bearish views are spreading quite easily and I sense panic everywhere I see.
I would have run at the first sight of trouble if I was the same guy I was in Sept '23. I reversed that bearish view in 2 weeks or so and re-entered Shilchar which I had sold earlier and bought Garware, Ceinsys etc. after that and thankfully it all worked out fine. I am faced now with the same situation but as they say you never step into the same river twice because its not the same river and you are not the same person.
Staying put through LTCG tax revision, June 4th election result, MH elections and numerous other big cut days paid very rich rewards. It wouldn’t have been possible to stay put if I did not understand what I owned and why I owned them clearly. Why should that change now? Doesn’t mean it will work out this time too, but I am bound to kick myself harder for changing a system that worked just fine. Besides, Its a lot easier to put up with a drawdown in familiar names (esp when they have very good prospects and earnings triggers).
Just as a wildfire gets worse the larger the uncleared deadwood, brush and debris that collects over time, sharp bearish falls don’t end until the last weak hand has thrown the towel. Thanks to social media though, the contagion spreads very fast and can perhaps be modeled like how a viral infection gets modeled. My favorite is this simulation which works based on a SIR model but is visual. The immunity section is key to understanding how this works. Play around with the immunity slider to see how it affects transmission. In the markets immunity develops in pretty much the same way. I will explore this in depth perhaps sometime in the future.
Taking a broader view, barely 2 weeks have passed this year and there has been so much jitter in such a short span of time. In what I own, which is currently whittled down to just 6 names (Ceinsys, Shaily, Wockhardt, Axiscades, Holmarc and Genesys), 4 of them are in the green for the month and 2 in the red (Also 4 of these names have been held for a year or more while 2 are relatively new). Ceinsys has received LoA for the Wainganga-Nalganga 380 Cr order for which they were L1 and should have a order book of Rs.1600 Cr with 115 Cr in L1 pipeline (at least). Wockhardt has received approval to launch Nafithromycin (Miqnaf) and today showed results for the Meropenem resistance trials which are very positive and should allow it to launch Zaynich in India shortly. The global phase 3 trial is complete and hopefully we will hear about preliminary findings before they file with FDA. Shaily exports continue to remain strong. Holmarc continues to win tenders and grow exports and there’s no reason to think they may not do 40-42 Cr+ this FY (should achieve the 4 Cr/mo or 24 Cr in H2) and 60 Cr next FY (5 Cr/mo). Axiscades ran up too much and should find value emerging below 700 and Genesys appears to be guiding for very good growth next few years as per AB Capital research report which also covers Ceinsys.
I am not sure how long this bearish phase will last but i believe most of the pf stocks should grow earnings at 40-50% in FY26. If things don’t play out at least I know what my thought process was at this point in time.
Disc: Fully invested with zero cash. Writing helps me gather my thoughts and get some clarity and posting here helps me be honest. I am not qualified to advice.
105 Likes GRP 12First positive wibes of the year. Thanks for explaining in lucid manner
kabirmulji 13Thank You…very interesting and I will read up more about the Geospatial space
I was lucky enough to get in to Wockhardt in the 250rs region and I have sold out 3/5ths in the last few days…it’s of course a very interesting company and I have read parts of ceos biography however I’m a little worried it’s too much of a jam tomorrow share for the prices that it’s now…I mean how much do you reckon 5222 could bring in revenue ? But India should be proud of this innovative company …as I see it most Indian pharma companies are doing the background stuff and replication for western companies whereas Wockhardt is an inventor …
When you mention Shaily exports—is it a plastics company ?
kkrai 14There is a lot of noise out there about the ongoing correction, and reading some independent view orthogonal but connected to the market context is refreshing. I do think that Ceinsys has great earnings visibility and I also like the fact that actual earning/profit for some of the new management executives is tied with performance of the company. My back of the envelope calculation is this FY PAT could be around 65 crores and FY26 it could double. I have views on Shaily too (I have done some digging) but will put that up some other day.
I wanted to pick your brain on very high growth but discovered stocks. Some T&D EPC players, some Solar EPC players, Electronic Manufacturers etc. fall in this category. Unless something drastically changes the chances are they would keep posting very strong growth. The current valuation for these can possibly be justified only looking at FY26 full year earnings. But a lot can change in five quarters, and so the dilemma of nibble them now or let go. Would be great if you could share your views in general about valuation (not specific to just companies in these sectors).
And, I am almost fully invested too, and intend to remain that way.
Cheers,
Krishna
@phreakv6 - Great note. Thanks for sharing. It’s always great to hear from you. Quick question - Were you also not invested in STAR and ORCHPHARMA ? Any thoughts on those?
Birsha_Haldar 16Hi @phreakv6 . Thanks for the excellent posts and guidance . On a separate note i wanted to pick you brains on asset allocation. Since you are someone who is 100% invested ( same like me ) … I was wondering if you have any percentage of assets outside equity. I am in that point of my life where I am trying to decide whether to quit my regular job and live on my assets as i have reached the number i was aiming for … ( 40x of my annual expenses ).My job requires a lot of time away from my family - otherwise i would have just continued doing it . Hence this deliberation .
4 Likes Nepal_Pal 17@phreakv6 , While I am a newer on the platform, but I look forward to your posts. Your thoughts are presented clearly and articulately, making them a pleasure to read. Thank you for sharing your insights, and please continue to share your wisdom
6 Likes ChaitanyaC 18This is a very personal question. It not just depends on the assets (which in itself is a question), it also depends a lot of factors, quantitative and non-quantitative. There is mathematics involved as far as expenses and spending are concerned, but there are many other aspects involved, including one’s own psychology, social life, utilization of time, introspection etc.
Check this thread, it is about equity, but it provides a picture. There are members who left their jobs (for whatever reasons), and how their perceives changed/unchanged after leaving their jobs.
Equity Investing as a full time career?Dear Fellow Investors, For many months, I have been thinking of quitting my job in the next 12 months and take up equity investing full time. My reasons for the same are: I love investing and want to devout more time in researching and start visiting companies I like I believe there is money to be made in Indian equities and, if I put in the right effort, I can find good opportunities for the same On the other hand, following things are holding me back from taking the plunge: Security of …
If you are absolute, nothing will beat the joy of having your time for what you want to do, the way you want to do.
P.S Typed this, found what you do, still posting this.
6 Likes Sajju 20@phreakv6 - How are you holding up in this correction phase? What should be the ideal mindset of an investor who is sure with odds in his favour (or rather was sure ) of the fundamentals of the companies that he holds but the gyrations in the market is tempting to sell at whatever minor profit or loss that he gets and return when the overall market conditions turn out better? Your general views would be highly appreciated.
3 Likes phreakv6 22@kkrai I too think Ceinsys has great earnings visibility. I don’t follow EMS, Solar players. T&D should continue to do well. Its a space I was invested in (Apar and Shilchar) and I think it is a decadal theme and will have its ups and downs. At good valuations, it might be worth a look.
@Jaison_George I sold Strides post demerger at 720 levels because it was never the business I was interested in (It is however very, very cheap now). I was and am interested in Onesource and own whatever I got from the demerger (Forgot to mention it since it was out of sight and out of mind, after having sold Strides)
@Birsha_Haldar I am not qualified to advice on personal finance. I can only talk about my own experience. I do have assets outside of equity which somehow I don’t even consider as part of n/ I never had a 9-5 job since 2007 and have been a consultant and done different things during that time, so transitioning to investing wasn’t a hard decision for me but even today I find it hard to call myself a full-time investor. I hate to be full-time anything. If you think spending time with family is important (I personally would take a 50% pay cut to do the same - all my decisions in the last 20 yrs have been centred around family), you should give it substantial weightage in decision-making. You can always live frugally if needed with family’s support.
@Sajju I was prepared for this. But irrespective of preparation, losing money so swiftly is like being punched in the face and it hurts. I was flirting with ATHs last Monday/Tuesday and was within 1% of ATH but in the last 5 sessions, have lost 16% from top. It has been swift and brutal. I am however fully invested and intend to continue being so. I expected 2024 to be like this but it turned out to be the best year for me in terms of returns. That provides a lot of cushion to take some hurt and build some character
@Dhruv_Doshi - Thank you. Spend the time studying and pick some good businesses but don’t rush if being in cash gives you the comfort. I am not following a lot of businesses other than the pf stocks. Good luck
74 Likes phreakv6 23The following is a look at the budget from the perspective of personal pf.
One of the biggest jumps this year is spend on Jal Jeevan Mission which benefits Ceinsys a lot. Last year as well budget was good at 69k Cr but execution was only 22k Cr. This year’s 67k Cr is a 3x jump over the 22k Cr used last year.
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There was a study done to see how JJM can be improved.
One of the things suggested to implement IoT based monitoring of quantity and quality of water. Ceinsys is implementing the Maharashtra project on same lines and this might mean a pan-India implementation and am hoping they can capitalise in states like UP where they have a foothold in TPI for JJM projects
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Apart from this, National Geospatial mission has an allocation of 100 Cr and Urban development has 1 lakh Cr (more digital twin projects could get funded which could help Genesys) and rural development of 2.66 lakh Cr (could aid land records digitisation). Other than this other infra spends in road, power, agri (dronagiri) can also contribute.
In defence, there’s healthy spends in space where Axiscades could benefit from - Counter-drones, drones (other equipments here could be that), as well as in revamping older equipments and in aircrafts which could all aid in increasing defence production orders.
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There’s healthy increase in Research & Development spends across DRDO, Space, IITs and IISc - all of which are customers for Holmarc.
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